Commentary No. (16) April 3rd (Census Bureau) February 2023 Real Construction Spending) - Despite the usual upside revisions to the prior two months of reporting, February 2023 Real Construction Spending showed its 17th straight month of year-to-year decline (down by 9.5% (-9.5%) from February 2022) [see Note (4)], with First-Quarter 2023 activity track for its fourth consecutive quarter-to-quarter decline, and its sixth consecutive quarterly year-to-year decline. ShadowStats will re-address these numbers at that time. The Committee will closely monitor incoming information and assess the implications for monetary policy. Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen did not describe in her Opening Message for 2021, as she had in 2020, and as her recent predecessors had done, that the current Fiscal Path was Unsustainable. Yet that concept still appeared early in the Opening Summary: The debt-to-GDP ratio was about 100 percent at the end of FY 2021 [around 122% in November 2022 WJW]. Financial Market Turmoil Is Just Beginning, Key Monthly Economic Numbers Turned Negative Anew in Fourth-Quarter 2020 -- Headline Fourth-Quarter 2022 GDP inflation (Implicit Price Deflator [IPD}) came in at a revised third estimate of an annualized pace of 3.92% (previously 3.93% and 3.51%), against an unrevised 4.36% in 3q2022, and up by an unrevised year-to-year 6.41% (initially 6.30%), versus an unrevised 7.15% in Third-Quarter 2022, which remained at a 42-year high, outside of the recent inflation spike. Ongoing rate hikes at each of the last several FOMC Meetings to reduce inflation, remain counterproductive in the context of an already deepening Economic Recession and resurgent gasoline prices. Measured against its Pre-Pandemic level, 4q2022 Real GDP had gained 5.03% [previously 5.06% and 5.11%]. Shadow.Tech - Review 2021 - PCMag Australia The latest Economic and Inflation releases were covered earlier in the Opening Section of this DAILY UPDATE. 1451, No. The initial headline annualized quarterly estimate of inflation-adjusted First-Quarter 2023 Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) showed doubly negative patterns of activity. The response to those writings (the Primer Series available at the top-center of this page) was so strong that we started ShadowStats.com (Shadow Government Statistics) in 2004. Yet, Fourth-Quarter 2020 New-Home Sales Contracted, as Did Real Retail Sales, Suggestive of Consumers Facing Intensifying Pandemic and Liquidity Issues -- Noted regularly here, New Home Sales (likely the least-reliable, least-meaningful, least-significant and most heavily revised headline series published by the Census Bureau) continued to sink year-to-year. Headline 1q2023 GDP annualized Real GDP growth of 1.06% slowed from an unrevised 2.57% in 4q2022, while annualized quarterly inflation picked from 3.92% to 4.01%. Shadowstats.comis a website that analyzes and offers alternatives to government economic statistics for the United States. Williams told David Lin, anchor for Kitco News, that the true headline . Separately, the inflation issue is complicated by independently rising gasoline prices, not by any overheating economy! Adjusted for seasonal factors, the monthly decline was 3.8% (-3.8%), with the year-to-year drop at 3.6% (-3.6%). (13) April 12th (Bureau of Labor Statistics). A similar pattern is likely with the Census Bureaus May 1st release of March 2023 nominal Construction Spending, given the activity patterns and related needed inflation-adjustments already in play. The Committee anticipates that some additional policy firming may be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent over time. -- In line with FOMC rate hikes, annual Payroll Growth has been slowing for the last fourteen months, from 5.3% in February 2022 to 2.7% in March 2023, suggestive of softening economic activity. That said, in practice, such should be a major economic consideration for the FOMC and the Administration, going forward, as they hike Interest Rates, reduce their Balance Sheet and look to break the Budget Deficit Federal Debt Ceiling. Shadow Government Statistics - Home Page - ShadowStats Risk of Hyperinflationary Economic Collapse Has Accelerated With Democrats Taking Control of Both the White House and Congress Here is how the March 2023 Money Supply numbers shaped up. The CPI-U (consumer price index) is the broadest measure of consumer price inflation for goods and services published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Federal Reserve Chairman Powell: "We Are a Long Way from Full Recovery" At the same time, the Pandemic-distorted and disrupted year-to-year gain for February 2023 Basic M1 eased to 4.8% from and unrevised 6.2% in February 2023. Yet, as discussed here frequently, the problem inflation largely is being driven by the FOMCs still explosive Money Supply and System Liquidity growth, not by an overheating economy. Reporting problems have included methodological changes to economic reporting that have pushed headline economic and inflation results out of the realm of real-world or common experience. John Williams, founder of ShadowStats, calculates inflation using the same methodology that the government used to have for calculating the consumer price index (CPI). ET; Friday, May 5th, the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its estimates of April 2023 Unemployment and Employment (8:30 a.m. ARCHIVES - VIEWING EARLIER COMMENTARIES. Details and related graphs follow in the next Subscriber e-mail, with extended review and coverage of this Fed-acknowledged regular pattern of initial upside reporting and later downside benchmark revisions to this series, as otherwise pending in Commentary No. Effectively fully surveyed, Permits were down by a deepening, seasonally adjusted year-to-year drop of 24.8% (-24.8%) in March 2023, against a revised, narrowed 16.5% (-16.5%) [previously a 17.9% (-17.9%) February decline]. [See the earlier headline Payroll discussions and later FOMC comments.] March 2023 New Residential Construction continued in statistically significant annual year-to-year collapse for both Building Permits and Housing Starts. Inflation remains elevated. Shadowstats debunked | Econbrowser 1461. Shadow 200 RQ-7 Tactical Unmanned Aircraft System - Army Technology December 2020 Cass Freight Index Jumped Year-to-Year by 6.7%, but Its Two-Year Change Was Down 1.8% (-1.8%) from December 2018, Due to FOMC Tightening Contracting Intervening 2019 Activity According to a new study published by the Institute for Applied Economic Research at the University of Tbingen in Germany (IAW), the Greek shadow economy is estimated to average 21.5 percent of . Separately, circumstances are exacerbated directly, at present, by spiking, weekly gasoline prices, as seen through the week of April 17th. Republishing our charts: Permission, Restrictions and Instructions (includes important requirements for successful hot-linking), Analysis Behind and Beyond Government Economic Reporting, This material is provided under the ShadowStats.com. What are Shadow's specs? The pattern of current activity remains consistent with a deepening, albeit not formally recognized Economic Recession. November New-Home Sales Collapsed by a Meaningful 11.1% (-11.1%) in the Month, On Top of Major Downside Revisions to Sales in Each of the Prior Three Months Using the same data collection and calculation methodologies as the Bureau of Labor Statistics used in the 1980s, John Williams, the founder of ShadowStats, determined that headline inflation should be much higher than 5.4%, the latest June release. Given a moribund, underlying U.S. Economy, raising rates further [as had been heavily jawboned and promised by the Fed Chairman, among other FOMC members, until the most-recent March 2023 FOMC] likely will only exacerbate deteriorating economic conditions, without providing any meaningful inflation relief. Accordingly, the FOMCs near-term financial-market policy conundrum of creating Money Supply to support the financial system, while trying to kill inflation at the same time, has no happy resolution. Understate inflation and you end up overstating the Real or inflation-adjusted level of growth in GDP. (II) - REGULAR ALERTS Again, as noted after the February 2023 rate hike, despite Fed Chairman Jerome Powells continued downplaying risks for the FOMCs hoped-for imminent Recession, which otherwise ostensibly is why he was raising rates, that downturn already was and is in play. In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. March 2023 Real New Orders for Durable Goods -- For fourteen consecutive quarters, through First-Quarter 2023, Real New Orders for Durable Goods (deflated by the Durable Goods PPI, and net of the volatile Commercial Aircraft orders), never has recovered its Third-Quarter 2019 Pre-Pandemic Peak activity. The 2021 Financial Report is available here: https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/financial-report/current-report.html -- ShadowStats will provide extended analysis in an updated Hyperinflation Commentary, which will post subsequent to the pending Commentary No. The CPI-U (consumer price index) is the broadest measure of consumer price inflation for goods and services published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).. While the headline number usually is the seasonally-adjusted month-to-month change, the formal CPI is reported on a not-seasonally-adjusted basis, with annual inflation measured in terms of year-to-year percent change in the price index. Where Commercial Aircraft account for about 32% of total orders, the remaining 68% includes everything else, ranging from automobiles to computers. -- Extended Fed coverage will follows in the later SYSTEMIC RISK SECTION -- FEDERAL RESERVE, with an updated story following the pending May 3rd FOMC coverage, as well as a comprehensive review of Federal Reserve Monetary Policies and Federal Government Fiscal Policies in pending Commentary No. Over the decades, well in excess of 1,000 presentations have been given on the economic outlook, or on approaches to analyzing economic data, to, clientslarge and smallincluding talks with members of the business, banking, government, press, academic, brokerage and investment communities. Full-Year 2020 Annual GDP Decline of 3.5% (-3.5%) Was the Deepest Since the 1946 Post-World War II Economic Reset Note also that the period of time in which the blue line departs from the CPI transformation is 2007-2009, a time in which inflation mania was at its peak. (15) April 5th (Census Bureau, Bureau of Economic Analysis - BEA) - Following a record 2022 Real Annual Merchandise Trade Deficit, the January and February 2023 Deficits deepened successively to their worst readings since October 2022, but narrower than in First-Half 2022. Federal Reserve Sees Continuing Need for Inflation-Boosting Monetary Stimulus, With No Economic Recovery Expected Before 2023 -- With fundamental U.S. Dollar debasement (inflation) intensifying, irrespective of short-lived games with reduced oil prices, and especially in the context of the Fed and related entities having to balance, bail out or backstop an increasingly troubled Financial System, holding physical Gold and Silver protects the purchasing power of ones assets, irrespective of any near-term Central Bank or other precious metals price machinations to the contrary. (6) April 24th (Census Bureau). ET), with posing here May 2nd; Wednesday, May 3rd; the May FOMC Meeting draws to a close, with a Press Release (at 2:00 p.m. Best Wishes -- John Williams. The Shadow Economy - Reserve Bank of Australia To ensure that our results are as robust as possible we use multiple sources to estimate its overall size, including data from the ABS, the Black Economy Taskforce (BETF), and the Australian Criminal Intelligence Commission (ACIC). Money Supply Charts - Shadowstats.com In determining the extent of future increases in the target range, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments. Part I --BOTTOM LINE Systemically Dangerous and Perilous FOMC Activity is Likely in the Week Ahead. Adjusted for seasonal factors, the monthly decline was 3.8% (-3.8%), with the year-to-year drop at 3.6% (-3.6%). -- Noted regularly here, New Home Sales (likely the least-reliable, least-meaningful, least-significant and most heavily revised headline series published by the Census Bureau) continued to sink year-to-year. The U.S. Dollar Is at Its Lowest Level Against the Swiss Franc Since January 2015, Down by 10.0% (-10.0%) Year-to-Year A Weak Dollar Is Highly Inflationary for the United States and Bullish for Gold Economic Recovery Is Not as Close as Hyped by the Consensus Outlook Collapsed Oil Prices Still Suppressed November CPI and PPI Annual Inflation; Yet, Oil Prices Suddenly Are Surging Anew 1459. In terms of quarter-to-quarter change, despite a sharp monthly decline in March 2023, those January and February auto sales pulled relative real 1q2023 activity up at an annualized quarterly pace of 3.10%, following respective consecutive annualized quarter-to-quarter declines of 3.29% (-3.29%) and 2.35% (-2.36%) in 4q2022 and 3q2022. Deconstructing ShadowStats. Why is it so Loved by its Followers but Ongoing rate hikes at each of the last several FOMC Meetings to reduce inflation, remain counterproductive in the context of an already deepening Economic Recession and resurgent gasoline prices. -- A little closer to real-world numbers, initial year-to-year headline March 2023 PPI Construction Inflation eased to 15.6%, from a minimally revised 16.1% (previously 16.2%) in February 2023. For the most-liquid Basic M1 Money Supply measure in March 2023, dollar levels and growth levels moved higher against the Pre-Pandemic Trough, still suggestive of massive mounting, not easing inflation pressures. Severe, U.S. Dollar-Debasing Inflationary Pressures from Existing, Extreme Monetary and Fiscal Policies Are About to Get Much Worse Contact us to discuss your needs. March 2023 Industrial Production, Manufacturing and Capacity Utilization showed meaningful downside benchmark revisions to previously reported activity, but continued in a third month of upturn in context of Federal Reserve regular overestimation of headline Industrial Production. Many segments and regions of the U.S. economy, and individual, personal circumstances have suffered, and continue to suffer severe structural damage from the shutdown, areas that likely will take years to recover fully. -- The University of Michigans full-month release of the April 2023 Consumer Sentiment reading held little changed at 63.5, against its initial estimate of 63.5, up from 62.0 in March 2023, holding shy by 37.1% (-37.1%)[previously by 38.6% (-38.6%) in March] of ever recovering its February 2020 pre-Pandemic peak level of 101.0. Where monthly jobs growth in the key Manufacturing, Retail Sales and Construction Sectors has turned flat-to-minus, the Leisure and Hospitality Sector showed continued strong, albeit slowing monthly growth, still holding shy by more than 2% (-2%) of ever recovering its pre-Pandemic level of activity. ShadowStats publishes "alternate" measures of inflation and pretends to do so by employing the methods the statistics bureau used to employ, that is, by ignoring the fact that we consume . That revised February inflation of 16.1% was much higher than the year-to-year nominal growth of 5.3% in parallel February Construction Spending, resulting in an unrevised, inflation adjusted, real year-to-year decline of 9.5% (-9.5%) in February 2023 [See extended comments in later Note (16)]. -- In contrast, the ShadowStats Corrected Alternate-GDP estimate, adjusted for the continual understatement of headline GDP Inflation, and the corresponding continual overstatement of growth in the Real GDP, showed a corrected 1q2023 real annualized quarterly contraction of 0.98% (-0.98%), against a 0.50% 4q2022 gain, with an annual contraction of 0.49% (-0.49%) in 1q2023, against an annual drop of 1.16% (-1.16%) in 4q2022. 1461. Annual growth in Payrolls has been slowing since February 2022. Accordingly, ongoing massive Fiscal and Monetary Stimuli will be needed, and likely will expand into 2024/2025, irrespective of the FOMCs pronounced tightening. As demonstrated in recent decades, FOMC stimulus likely will remain in play, as targeted by the FOMC, primarily, in order to prevent a collapse in the Banking System, or to magnify liquidity in the Banking System, which owns and controls the Federal Reserve, not to stimulate the Broad Economy, per se. Details and related graphs follow in the next Subscriber e-mail, with extended review and coverage of this Fed-acknowledged regular pattern of initial upside reporting and later downside benchmark revisions to this series, as otherwise pending in Commentary No. Gasoline prices having been in an upswing since January 2023, gaining 11.7% since December 2022, as of the just-released April 2023 monthly average [EIA]. Inflation is already in the double digits, according to ShadowStats' John Williams, and will still grow. ET]. Shadow Government Statistics - RationalWiki Inflation. Including Long-Term Discouraged Workers, the broader, March 2023 ShadowStats Alternate Unemployment Rate of 24.6% held at a seven-month high. Including Long-Term Discouraged Workers, the broader, March 2023 ShadowStats Alternate Unemployment Rate of 24.6% held at a seven-month high. Nonetheless, systemic Turmoil is still evolving, with both the Federal Reserve and U.S. Government continuing to drive uncontrolled U.S. dollar creation, between unconstrained Money Supply growth (irrespective of Balance Sheet Reduction) and uncontained Deficit Spending, with U.S. Treasury Debt currently pushing to break the $31.4 Trillion Debt Ceiling. That also was in context of a deepening shortfall against its Pre-Pandemic Peak by 1.46% (-1.46%) in 1q2023, versus a 1.22% (-1.22%) shortfall in 4q2022. Despite political hype to the contrary, such is helping to accelerate the pace of domestic Inflation. Near-Term Financial-Market Turmoil Likely Is Far from Over, Given Renewed Deterioration in Economic Conditions, Fourth-Quarter 2020 Annualized Real GDP Growth of 4.0% Was as Expected, Slowing from the Record 33.4% Third-Quarter Pandemic Rebound Job gains have picked up in recent months and are running at a robust pace; the unemployment rate has remained low. Consumer Liquidity, Depression, Money Supply. According to the stats bureau, output of solar cells rose 53.2% and new-energy automobiles (mostly electric vehicles) rose 22.5% . Headline March 2023 Producer Price Index (PPI) annual inflation dropped sharply from 4.9% in February 2023 to 2.8% in March 2023, due to the relative easing against the extreme oil and gasoline price spikes triggered by the year-ago Russian invasion of Ukraine. The CPI-U (consumer price index) is the broadest measure of consumer price inflation for goods and services published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). This is because he states that these numbers have been manipulated over the past 25 years for nefarious political reasons. Negative Implications Here for the July 29th GDP Benchmarking Signals of renewed, faltering activity increasingly have taken on the mantle of a new Recession. Informal Economy Sizes. (3) April 26th (Census Bureau). Walter J. April 2023 Annual Benchmark Revisions lowered historical levels and growth estimates for inflation-adjusted Real Retail Sales back to January 2021, likely foreshadowing some downside revisions to headline GDP in its later 2023 benchmarking. Explored in the pending Commentary, the U.S. economy is and has been much weaker than advertised, not overheating, and the soaring inflation, which is much worse than headlined, again, primarily is being driven by the Feds excessive Money and Liquidity creation, not by an overheating economy, in a policy conundrum previously noted here by ShadowStats. Despite numerous, separate indications of the economy stalling or turning down anew (see the earlier GDP, Consumer Sentiment, New Orders for Durable Goods, Industrial Production, and Construction Spending), such broadly is ignored at present. Expanded Federal Reserve Accommodation Remains Likely Well Into 2023, Given the Increasingly Negative Outlook for Imminent U.S. Economic Recovery Increases have continued across-the-board into early April 2023. (2) April 27th (Bureau of Economic Analysis), also see Note 17. Current U.S. Economy Remains Far from a Full Recovery 1461. The Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks. Sales declined 22% from one year ago. The renewed monthly decline followed a 13.8% monthly jump in March, the first monthly gain since January 2022. (4) April 25th (Federal Reserve Board, ShadowStats) -- Headline U.S. March 2023 Money Supply and Monetary Base details showed a continuing creation of, or a shift or flight to liquidity, all of which tends to fuel inflation. The flight of cash to relatively greater liquidity and safety in the narrower Money Supply measures, specifically in Basic M1, saw March 2023 relative liquidity at a new 53-year high (Basic M1/M2) of 35.0%, since September 1970. Your Shadow subscription. Use the drop-down menu below to find highlights and links to Commentaries from the present and past months. SHADOWSTATS SUBSCRIPTIONS Economic and financial issues raised here are reviewed more extensively, along with exclusive graphs, and expanded economic, financial market and monetary assessment in subscriber-only Commentaries [monthly going forward], and more frequently on a timely basis in the subscriber-only e-mails of daily changes in the DAILY UPDATE (as the news breaks, see the prior paragraph). shadowstats.com : r/badeconomics - Reddit Year-to-year Core PPI Inflation (net of Food and Energy) eased from 5.1% to 4.3%. Year-to-year Core PPI Inflation (net of Food and Energy) eased from 5.1% to 4.3%. -- Headline March 2023 U.3 and U.6 Unemployment of 3.50% and 6.68% notched lower from respective three- and six-month highs of 3.57% and 6.80% in February, but held above January 2023 levels. (12) April 13th (Bureau of Labor Statistics). Yet hard Money Supply numbers through the deliberately slow release of the March 2023 detail, show minimal impact, presently still expanding in the most-liquid, inflation-driving Basic M1 (Currency and Demand Deposits). Scroll down for the latest ShadowStats Outlook, Background Information on the U.S. Economy, Financial System (FOMC), Financial Markets and Alternate Data, also for publicly available Special Reports and contact information. ALTERNATE DATA TAB [See the Menu Bar above] provides the latest headline numbers and exclusive ShadowStats Alternate Estimates and related Graphs of CPI Inflation [April 13], GDP [April 27], Unemployment [April 7], Money Supply [April 25] and the ShadowStats Financial-Weighted U.S. Dollar [January 10]. That said, expanded Federal Government Deficit Spending continues, currently at the Debt Ceiling. On Top of Downside Revisions, Declining November Real Retail Sales Showed Renewed Economic Deterioration Consider -- Despite significant Recovery off the Pandemic-Driven Economic Trough of April 2020, the February 2023 Payroll Employment has recovered its February 2020 Pre-Pandemic/ Recession Peak, despite indications of a renewed slowdown. (7) April 20th (National Association of Realtors NAR). Per the NAR Press Release, Existing-home sales retreated 2.4% in March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.44 million. John Williams, Fundamentals Could Not Be Stronger for Gold and Silver, nor Weaker for the U.S. Dollar and Stocks, Despite Fed or Market Nonsense to the Contrary First-Quarter 2021 GDP Remains at Risk of Relapsing into Quarterly Contraction (5) April 25th (Census Bureau). 1461 soon. Tourism Statistics - Austrade Deepening Deficits in Fourth-Quarter and Annual 2020 Real Net-Exports (GDP) and the Related Real Merchandise Trade Deficit Were the Worst Ever in Modern U.S. Shadowstats.com is a website that claims that the government does a piss poor job of keeping track of certain statistics. March 2023 Money Supply numbers and historic tables have been posted and graphed to the ALTERNATE DATA TAB (see the Menu Bar above), with more extensive analysis, graphs and coverage following in the DAILY UPDATE e-mails and in pending Commentary No.
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